Recent opinion polls from multiple Italian institutes place Futuro Nazionale, the far-right movement founded in early 2026 by Roberto Vannacci, between 6.7% and 8.2% of voting intentions. This level has held steady since mid-year after rapid gains that allowed the party to surpass Forza Italia and compete with the Lega in several surveys. The party secured nearly 11% in the September 2026 Calabria by-election with its first independent list and maintains organizational momentum with over 140,000 members. With the next general election due by December 2027 under the newly approved Stabilicum majority-bonus system, these sustained results underpin trader consensus that the 3% threshold will be cleared. Minor recent softening has not approached levels that would alter the outlook.