France’s 2027 budget faces a divided National Assembly with no stable majority, driving the 55% implied probability of passage by year-end. The government’s draft targets a 5% of GDP deficit—down from an expected 5.4% in 2026—through €54 billion in fiscal measures, yet the revenue provisions were rejected in committee and a Socialist motion of rejection was narrowly defeated on October 13. Traders price in the realistic prospect of Article 49.3 invocation or post-70-day ordinances to enact the bill without a full vote, while noting risks from potential censure motions, RN positioning, and last-minute amendments amid elevated French yields and EU deficit scrutiny. Upcoming Assembly votes on revenue and the full text, plus Senate review, remain key swing factors before the December 17 constitutional deadline.