Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% in September against forecasts, has lifted implied probabilities of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting to around 50%, strengthening the dollar and pressuring EUR/USD to a 17-month low near 1.11 before a modest rebound to the 1.12 area. The ECB faces similar inflation pressures above its 2% target, with markets pricing in potential tightening at its October 29 meeting, yet French fiscal uncertainties and political risks continue to weigh on the euro. Traders are watching upcoming inflation releases, central bank speeches, and Treasury yield movements for shifts in relative policy expectations that could determine whether the pair tests key levels by year-end.