**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.2% because Ashley St. Clair filed for sole custody shortly after their son Romulus’s 2024 birth, establishing the status quo in family court while Musk’s January 2026 filing announcement has yet to produce any final orders or interim shifts by the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.** Ongoing litigation, St. Clair’s recent public appearances in the Alex Gibney documentary detailing their relationship and her rejection of an alleged multimillion-dollar NDA, and Musk’s public disputes over her statements have not altered the legal trajectory. Historical patterns in high-profile custody cases, including Musk’s prior proceedings, show mothers often retain primary residential custody absent compelling welfare evidence. A realistic upset would require an unexpected court ruling granting Musk sole or primary custody before year-end, though the compressed timeline and lack of reported breakthroughs make this improbable.