Recent US assessments indicate that Chinese military readiness shortfalls, including from anti-corruption efforts, make a Taiwan invasion before 2028 increasingly unlikely despite the 2027 target. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s October 10 National Day address stressed defense investments to deter conflict while welcoming US-China dialogue to lower risks, drawing standard Beijing condemnation for separatism without triggering major new escalations. China’s subsequent coastal live-fire drills through mid-October remain outside Taiwan’s immediate vicinity and align with routine activity patterns rather than invasion rehearsals. Daily People’s Liberation Army operations continue around the island, yet the absence of large-scale war games since late 2025 reinforces trader consensus that an invasion by end-2027 faces significant barriers.