Traders assign a 96.5% probability to no Chinese blockade of Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols, air and naval incursions, and military exercises rather than an enforced maritime quarantine. The most recent development, China's October 14 naval drills simulating port blockades and sea-air operations around the island, aligns with patterns of deterrence signaling without crossing into sustained denial of commercial traffic. Taiwan's leadership has responded by accelerating defense investments to deter conflict, while U.S. statements highlight destabilizing activities without indicating imminent escalation. This consensus rests on the absence of declared or de facto enforcement actions meeting market criteria through late 2026. Potential shifts could arise from sudden diplomatic breakdowns, miscalculation during live-fire periods, or changes in U.S.-China engagement that alter Beijing's risk calculations.