Despite strains from CDU/CSU losses in September 2026 state elections, mutual accusations over cooperation with extremists, polling declines below 30 percent for the Union, and Labor Minister Bärbel Bas’s October 12 resignation amid coalition tensions, the CDU/CSU–SPD partners held crisis talks on October 7–8 that produced a joint commitment to reforms on pensions, welfare, and the 2027 budget. Both sides have signaled reluctance to trigger collapse or snap elections, citing the need for stability against AfD gains and the absence of viable alternative majorities. This dynamic underpins the 89.5 percent trader-implied probability that the grand coalition formed in May 2025 will hold through at least early 2027.