The turbulent on-and-off trajectory of Cardi B and Stefon Diggs’ relationship underpins the market’s 94% implied probability for no 2026 engagement. After confirming their romance in 2025 and welcoming a son that November, the pair faced a publicized split around the Super Bowl, with Cardi B signaling distance during her tour and both parties navigating trust concerns plus Diggs’ other paternity matters. While co-parenting sightings and matching-jewelry moments in mid-2026 have revived speculation, neither has issued a confirmed statement restoring full romantic status, and Diggs’ earlier “on the agenda” tease carried no timeline. With only weeks left and no verified momentum toward a proposal, traders view the pattern of volatility and lack of official updates as decisive. A last-minute reconciliation and announcement remains possible but would require rapid, documented shifts inconsistent with recent public signals.