Apple’s ongoing tests of CXMT DRAM for potential use in China-market iPhones and MacBooks have yet to overcome major barriers that keep the implied odds of a 2026 purchase at roughly 23.5 percent. The Pentagon’s Chinese Military Company listing, bipartisan Senate pressure, and the need for White House clearance create substantial political and compliance risk, while U.S. rules restrict Apple to off-the-shelf components rather than custom designs. CXMT’s fabs are running near capacity with output largely committed through 2027 to domestic clients, leaving limited headroom for a new large customer. Recent mass production of its G5 LPDDR5X platform underscores technical progress but does not resolve these supply-chain and regulatory constraints before year-end.