Apple’s exploratory testing of CXMT DRAM for China-market iPhones and MacBooks has not translated into confirmed purchases, sustaining the 87% market-implied probability of “No” for 2026. Geopolitical hurdles remain central: CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H list over alleged military ties requires White House clearance that has not materialized amid bipartisan congressional pressure. CXMT’s 2026 wafer capacity is already fully committed to domestic clients such as ByteDance, Tencent, and Xiaomi, leaving minimal headroom for Apple even if approvals are granted. While HP and Acer have incorporated CXMT parts in select non-U.S. devices amid the AI-driven DRAM shortage, Apple’s talks stay narrowly scoped to China-only supply and face both regulatory and volume constraints that traders view as unlikely to clear before year-end.