**Trader consensus favoring a "No" outcome at 77% reflects persistent regulatory, capacity, and political barriers that have kept Apple’s engagement with CXMT at the testing and early-talks stage rather than a confirmed 2026 supply agreement.** Apple has tested CXMT DRAM across iPhone and MacBook lines and explored limited use for China-market devices amid the AI-driven memory shortage, but CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s Chinese Military Company list, bipartisan congressional opposition, and U.S. export rules restricting custom specifications have blocked progress. CXMT’s 2026 output is reportedly fully allocated to domestic buyers, leaving minimal room for new international customers. While HP and Acer have incorporated the chips in select non-U.S. products, Apple has not secured the White House sign-off or finalized any volume commitment before year-end. Upcoming catalysts such as further capacity expansions or policy shifts could alter timelines, yet current verified developments continue to support the market’s cautious stance.