Recent polls show Iliana Iotova and Kiril Valchev leading with roughly 42-52% support among decided voters, followed by Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev at 22-28% and Kostadin Kostadinov far behind. With 27 candidates registered, around 20% undecided voters, and projected turnout of 36-40%, the frontrunner remains well short of the absolute majority required for a first-round victory. Bulgarian law mandates over 50% of votes cast plus at least 50% turnout for an outright win; no candidate has achieved this since the two-round system began. Low participation expectations and vote fragmentation reinforce trader consensus that a November 1 runoff is the probable outcome.