**Traders assign a 93% probability that no additional OPEC member will formally announce its withdrawal before December 31, 2026, following the UAE’s exit effective May 1.** This consensus reflects the absence of any subsequent official departures despite ongoing speculation, combined with public reaffirmations of commitment from remaining core members such as Algeria and Russia. OPEC+ has continued to coordinate output targets amid Middle East supply disruptions, with recent meetings holding November ceilings steady and deferring major quota adjustments. Potential candidates including Kazakhstan, Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela have faced internal discussions or quota frustrations, yet none have issued formal withdrawal announcements that would trigger market resolution. With limited time remaining in the year and no verified exits since the UAE precedent, the implied probability aligns with the lack of qualifying developments.