**Traders assign an implied 91.5% probability to “No” on another OPEC member exiting in 2026, reflecting limited evidence of further departures after the UAE’s April 28 announcement and May 1 effective exit.** The UAE cited long-standing quota frustrations and a desire for greater production and marketing autonomy amid its expanded capacity. Since then, core OPEC+ participants including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman have publicly reaffirmed commitment to coordinated output policies in October statements and meetings. Iraq briefly weighed an exit over quota levels in June but clarified it would remain while seeking adjustments. Ongoing regional supply disruptions and the group’s November production targets have reinforced cohesion, with no official announcements or credible signals from other members indicating imminent withdrawal.