**Recent reaffirmations of commitment by core OPEC+ members, combined with the absence of new formal withdrawal announcements, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring no additional exits in 2026.** The UAE’s departure effective May 1, 2026, already resolved one exit this year, prompting speculation about Iraq, Venezuela, and others frustrated by quotas. However, Algeria, Russia, Kazakhstan, and others have publicly restated support for coordinated production policy in recent months. Ongoing OPEC+ meetings through October have maintained steady output targets amid regional supply disruptions, signaling institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. While quota disputes and capacity reviews continue, no other member has issued an official exit notice, and the group has historically adapted to prior departures without collapse. This stability, absent fresh catalysts before year-end, aligns with the 91.5% implied probability on “No.”