The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel genocide case remains in the extended written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder set for May 2029 after multiple deadline extensions granted in 2026. This schedule makes a final merits ruling by December 2027 highly unlikely, even if oral hearings begin in late 2027. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, and its proceedings focus on individual criminal responsibility separate from state-level findings at the ICJ. Recent procedural developments, including Colombia’s withdrawal of its intervention and Belgium’s filing in September-October 2026, underscore continued international engagement without accelerating resolution. Traders price the 85 percent “no” outcome on these structural delays and the high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent.