Meta’s September 8, 2026 launch of Muse—a persistent personal AI agent running in dedicated cloud VMs with browser access, proactive task execution across connected apps, and long-running goal management—has set the benchmark that other labs must match before year-end to win the Polymarket. OpenAI’s late-September “dots” release using GPT-6 Astra demonstrated similar always-on agents with persistent memory and user-supervised actions, tightening the race and lifting implied probabilities for Microsoft (now at 33¢) and Anthropic (25¢). Google’s October workplace Gemini agent and Meta’s Personal Agent Protocol initiative with Stripe and Shopify further signal accelerating platform and standards development. Traders are watching for credible consumer launches from remaining contenders by December 31, as delays in model capability, security architecture, or regulatory review could shift outcomes in this tight window.