Sean Strickland holds the UFC middleweight title after reclaiming it via split decision over Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 in May 2026, and recent rankings place him atop the division with a clear edge in activity and momentum. Traders assign him a dominant 79% implied probability of finishing the year as champion because the next scheduled defense against Nassourdine Imavov remains stalled over compensation disputes, with no other bout confirmed before December and limited time for challengers to force a change. Imavov sits at 3.6% as the consensus top contender after a five-fight win streak, while Chimaev, Dricus Du Plessis, and others trail far behind due to recent losses, injuries, or inactivity that reduce their realistic paths to the belt by year-end. Strickland’s public frustration with pay and hints at vacating or moving to light heavyweight introduce some uncertainty, yet the current timeline and his established position keep market consensus firmly in his favor.