Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on the short window remaining before December 31, 2026, with prices reflecting perceived likelihood of physical custody or surrender under active federal probes. A recent search warrant executed at Rep. Ilhan Omar’s residence as part of an immigration-fraud investigation has lifted her implied probability, consistent with documented DOJ actions against Democratic lawmakers. Former officials such as John Brennan and James Clapper face ongoing grand-jury scrutiny tied to prior intelligence matters, while Letitia James and Adam Schiff appear in trackers of retaliatory enforcement patterns. Historical base rates for high-profile indictments converting to arrests within months remain low absent new charges or warrants. Resolution hinges strictly on verified detention by year-end, leaving room for late developments in existing cases.