Democrats hold a 70% implied probability of winning the Arizona State Senate majority in the November 2026 election, compared with 22% for Republicans, reflecting trader consensus on current conditions. All 30 seats are contested following Republican control of a 17-13 edge after 2024. Recent forecasts show Democrats favored in most competitive districts, with a median projection of 18 seats and control odds above 90% in simulations, driven by leftward shifts in voter lean from the prior presidential cycle and several races rated toss-up or lean Democratic. Primaries concluded in July, and the broader national environment has reinforced Democratic positioning in battleground legislative districts. Scheduled general election results on November 3 will determine final resolution.