Recent polling ahead of New Zealand’s November 7 general election shows National and Labour tied near 28-29 percent, leaving both short of a majority in the 123-seat parliament. The right bloc of National, ACT, and New Zealand First hovers around 58-59 seats in simulations, while the left bloc of Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori reaches 56-57. The Opportunities Party, polling 6-8 percent and on track for 8-10 seats, emerges as the likely kingmaker after recent leaders’ debates. National has ruled out coalitions with certain parties, narrowing formation paths. Advance voting begins October 26, with final official results due late November. Trader consensus reflects these narrow margins and coalition uncertainties rather than any single decisive shift.