**SPD, Die Linke, and the Greens have entered formal coalition negotiations following the September 20, 2026, Landtag election, positioning a red-red-green government as the clear path to a majority.** The AfD won the most seats (32 of 71) with 38.2% but remains isolated by the firewall policy, as all other parties have ruled out cooperation. The previous SPD–Left coalition lost its majority (now 34 seats), while the three-party combination reaches 39 seats. Negotiations began October 12 after exploratory talks, with the Landtag convening October 20 and a Minister-President election required within four weeks. Key issues include budget constraints, climate and energy policy, and defense industry matters. The CDU and BSW fell below the 5% threshold and hold no seats. Trader consensus reflects the arithmetic reality and cross-party exclusion of the AfD, with limited scope for alternative majorities before the mid-November deadline.