Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening in July has anchored trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 debut, giving it a narrow edge over Avengers: Doomsday at 48.5% implied probability. Doomsday’s unprecedented $100 million-plus in early global pre-sales and December 18 holiday slot create the main swing factor, as a massive Russo brothers-directed crossover could claim the top spot and leave Brand New Day in second. Lower-probability titles such as Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah face steep calendar competition and lack comparable presale momentum or franchise heat. With both leading contenders closely matched, resolution hinges on Doomsday’s final tracking and holiday multiplier in the coming weeks.