Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which triggered severe restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, underpin the 88.5% market-implied odds against any return to normal traffic this year. AIS-visible commercial transits remain at roughly 8-10% of pre-crisis levels, averaging 8 ships daily versus 85 before the disruptions, amid record October attacks, Iranian permit requirements, and war-risk insurance premiums elevated 15-30 times peacetime rates. Brent crude near $106 per barrel reflects sustained supply constraints, with flows 30-40% below baseline. Escalating incidents through mid-October have reinforced trader consensus that resolution hinges on broader diplomatic or security shifts unlikely before year-end, leaving minimal implied probability for normalization in October through December.