Persistent geopolitical conflict stemming from the February 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian restrictions has kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic at roughly 4-10% of pre-crisis levels, with AIS-visible transits averaging under 9 vessels daily in early October amid repeated tanker attacks and a US naval blockade. This sustained disruption, marked by elevated war-risk insurance premiums and Brent crude above $100 per barrel, underpins the market's 86.5% implied probability of no return to normal traffic through 2026. Recent October escalations, including IRGC strikes on outbound vessels and stalled mediation efforts, have reinforced trader consensus around delayed normalization, while slim odds for October, November, or December reflect minimal near-term catalysts for de-escalation.