K-pop's packed fall comeback season, driven by award eligibility deadlines and agency competition, underpins strong trader consensus that most active groups will release new songs by year-end. October 2026 alone features over 114 confirmed releases, including high-profile drops from IVE, ILLIT, NMIXX, NCT WISH, BABYMONSTER, and SEVENTEEN subunits like JxJ, alongside rookies and solo projects from established acts. November schedules add further momentum with planned music from ATEEZ, TOMORROW X TOGETHER, TWS, and RESCENE. Market-implied odds reflect this activity plus historical patterns, where major labels prioritize annual output, though groups facing hiatuses, member issues, or label disputes show more uncertainty and potential for lower probabilities.