Recent diplomatic momentum centers on Latin America, where Colombia restored full ties and inaugurated its embassy in Jerusalem in mid-October 2026 under President Abelardo de la Espriella, marking the tenth such mission and doubling the total since Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar took office. Israel’s parallel outreach includes restored relations with several South American states and its December 2025 recognition of Somaliland, the first formal acknowledgment of that entity. These moves contrast with persistently low probabilities for additional Arab or Muslim-majority recognitions, shaped by the Gaza conflict’s impact on regional alignments and the limited pace of further Abraham Accords-style normalization. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied chance to Venezuela at roughly 18 percent, with most other listed states below 10 percent, reflecting structural barriers and the short remaining window to year-end.