Romania’s prolonged political deadlock since the May 2026 collapse of the Bolojan cabinet has left trader sentiment fragmented across coalition options. Prime Minister-designate Luca Niculescu must submit a cabinet and program to Parliament by mid-October for an investiture vote requiring at least 233 seats. PSD pushes for a political majority including PNL and UDMR while rejecting technocratic formulas, yet PNL refuses cabinet participation with PSD and USR excludes PSD ministers. UDMR signals conditional support, and smaller groups or independents could prove decisive. Economic pressures, including budget rectification and EU commitments, add urgency, while AUR’s polling strength deters snap elections. These cross-party frictions and last-minute negotiations sustain the close spread among “Other,” PSD-led, and multi-party scenarios.