PSD's commanding position in the current parliament, combined with its October decision to take 11 ministerial posts in Prime Minister-designate Luca Niculescu's proposed technocratic cabinet, has driven trader consensus toward a PSD-centric outcome. The Social Democrats secured key portfolios including interior, defense, and transport while securing external support from PNL and UDMR for the October 19-20 confidence vote, despite opposition from AUR and USR. This arrangement ends five months of deadlock following the May collapse of the prior PNL-USR-UDMR government and avoids snap elections. Other listed combinations remain low-probability because no alternative coalition commands the necessary 233-vote majority without PSD participation. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing incorporates these parliamentary arithmetic realities and the imminent investiture timeline.