Recent polling shows National and Labour nearly tied near 28% party vote ahead of the November 7 election, with the incumbent National-ACT-NZ First bloc holding a narrow edge in most aggregates due to NZ First gains that push the right combination toward or past majority thresholds in several surveys. The left bloc of Labour and the Greens trails, though adding Te Pāti Māori improves its position in some models; Opportunity's consistent strength above the 5% threshold creates kingmaker dynamics, but National's earlier exclusion of cooperation with the party constrains left-bloc paths. Recent leaders' debates have narrowed preferred prime minister gaps without shifting bloc fundamentals, while overhang risks and minor-party volatility keep outcomes fluid in the final weeks.