Recent diplomatic signals point to China as the frontrunner for the next Trump-Putin encounter, driven by Russian officials confirming both leaders' interest in meeting on the sidelines of the November APEC summit in Shenzhen. A substantive October phone call between the presidents covered energy supplies, Ukraine, and Iran, with Kremlin aides noting plans for an in-person exchange if attendance aligns. This venue timing within the 2026 calendar, alongside Putin's stated willingness to attend and Trump's prior commitments to the forum, has shaped trader consensus around a China location. Lower probabilities for other sites or no meeting by year-end reflect remaining uncertainties over final schedules, bilateral priorities, and any last-minute shifts in participation.