**NHC forecasts and observational data drove overwhelming trader consensus toward a Florida landfall.** Isaias strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall near Destin in the western Florida Panhandle around 0130 UTC on October 10, 2026, with sustained winds near 105 mph, per National Hurricane Center advisories. Steering between a subtropical ridge and an approaching trough produced a consistent northward track into the Panhandle, with high-resolution models and ensemble guidance showing minimal spread. Storm surge and wind radii aligned with the warned zone from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle, while rapid post-landfall weakening over Alabama confirmed the resolution criteria. Market-implied odds reflected this strong scientific consensus from official monitoring, with Florida contracts trading near 99 cents in the final days.