Recent sea surface temperature observations and model ensembles have driven the strong market preference for a peak RONI exceeding 2.5°C, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning an 83% probability of a historic October–December value on its Relative Oceanic Niño Index. The event has intensified rapidly, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.3°C and eastern Pacific departures surpassing +4.0°C amid substantial subsurface heat content. All major dynamical models project continued strengthening through late 2026, consistent with very strong conditions persisting into early 2027. This consensus, backed by coupled ocean-atmosphere indicators, positions record RONI levels as the dominant outcome while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty around exact peak timing and magnitude.