Recent August 2026 data showed the Austin metro median sale price at $412,000, down 6.4% year over year amid 5.1 months of supply and 30-year mortgage rates averaging 6.67%. Trader consensus across the closely bunched $397K–$437K buckets reflects this cooling trajectory, as elevated inventory, price cuts on over 27% of listings, and persistent affordability constraints from higher-for-longer rates have shifted leverage to buyers since the 2022 peak near $525,000. Analyst projections from Unlock MLS and local market reports point to a year-end median between $410,000 and $420,000, with modest pending-sales gains offset by softer closed volumes and new-construction discounts. Key swing factors over the final weeks include Q4 transaction data, any further inventory tightening, and broader monetary policy signals influencing rate expectations.