Recent Federal Reserve communications and market pricing for another 25-basis-point rate hike by December 2026, amid sticky inflation and resilient growth, have kept Treasury yields elevated and the dollar firm, capping gold near $4,150–$4,200 per ounce. Central-bank purchases, including 289 tonnes in Q2, continue to provide structural support, but near-term sentiment hinges on upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI releases plus the late-October FOMC meeting. Traders are monitoring whether hotter inflation data reinforces the tightening path or if softer prints ease rate-hike odds, with December futures reflecting roughly 85–88% probability of an additional increase before year-end. Geopolitical tensions and energy prices add volatility but have not yet overridden the policy headwinds.