**Elevated 2026 West Nile virus transmission in New York City, driven by record numbers of positive mosquito pools (1,772 to date) and human cases already reaching 31 neuroinvasive diagnoses, underpins the market's strong preference for the 35-to-49 outcome at 62.5% implied probability.** Recent surveillance from the NYC Health Department shows activity across all boroughs, with Brooklyn leading, exceeding 2025 totals (16 neuroinvasive) and aligning with the 2022–2025 average of roughly 25–31 cases annually. Warmer temperatures and extended mosquito seasons have boosted vector activity compared with lower-transmission years. Trader consensus reflects this trajectory toward a moderate-to-elevated season while accounting for typical late-season reporting and year-to-year variability in case detection. Final 2026 data, expected in early 2027, will resolve the market.