**Recent procedural delays in the DEA's administrative process are the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for full marijuana rescheduling.** In April 2026, the Department of Justice and DEA finalized a rule moving FDA-approved marijuana products and state-licensed medical marijuana to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act, effective immediately. A separate proceeding to reschedule all marijuana, including adult-use products, advanced to hearings that concluded in mid-July 2026. The chief administrative law judge received the record in August but granted a stay in late September after opponents cited a GAO report questioning agency scheduling procedures. Responses to pending motions were due in mid-October, leaving the timeline uncertain. Analysts now view a final rule before year-end as unlikely given the remaining steps—an ALJ recommendation, DEA Administrator review, and potential further proceedings—which historically extend well into 2027. Market pricing reflects these bottlenecks, with implied probabilities for completion by December 31 remaining in the low single digits. No major legislative or executive actions have altered the administrative track in recent weeks.