The Liberal–National Coalition holds the strongest trader consensus at 66% for the 28 November Victorian state election, driven by consistent primary vote leads of 28–30% in October polling and narrow two-party preferred advantages of 52–53% over Labor. Recent Resolve, RedBridge/Accent, and Freshwater surveys show the Coalition ahead on economic management under Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, while new Labor Premier Ben Carroll trails in personal ratings. One Nation’s 20–24% primary support boosts right-leaning preferences in regional seats but leaves its own outright win chance low at under 10%. Labor trails at 19.5% amid voter shifts since the 2022 result, with the Greens and other minors at negligible levels given the fragmented but Coalition-favored seat math six weeks from polling day.