Recent polling aggregates show the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor of roughly 52–56 to 44–48, with primary votes around 29 percent for the Coalition, 24–25 percent for Labor, 22–24 percent for One Nation, and 15–16 percent for the Greens. Traders have priced the Coalition as the clear favorite at 66.5 percent because the incumbent Labor government, in office since 2014 and under new Premier Ben Carroll since July 2026, faces headwinds on debt, cost-of-living pressures, and regional issues, while Coalition leader Jess Wilson leads preferred-premier surveys. One Nation’s regional surge fragments the vote but is widely expected to direct preferences toward the Coalition, reducing Labor’s path to retaining a majority in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly ahead of the November 28 election.