Recent Victorian state polls show the Liberal–National Coalition holding a narrow primary-vote edge and a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor, supporting trader pricing that favors the Coalition to form government after the November 28 election. Labor’s primary vote has remained subdued near 24–25 percent following the July leadership transition to Ben Carroll, while One Nation’s sustained support above 20 percent fragments the vote and complicates preference flows. Greens polling in the mid-teens adds further uncertainty to seat outcomes. These dynamics, reflected in recent Resolve, RedBridge, and Roy Morgan surveys, underpin the current market consensus on the most likely winner.