Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28 state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a narrow statewide primary-vote lead (around 29–30%) over Labor (24–25%), with One Nation at 22–25% and the Greens at 14–16%. These figures, combined with regional strengths across the eight Legislative Council electoral regions, underpin trader consensus that the Coalition is best positioned to secure the largest share of the 40 upper-house seats. Labor’s internal preselection delays and expected losses of second positions in most regions have weighed on its implied probability. One Nation’s surge has drawn support from both major parties but has not yet translated into upper-house dominance in seat models, while the Greens remain competitive only in metropolitan areas. With six weeks until polling, preference flows and final candidate tickets remain the principal variables that could still shift upper-house outcomes.