Recent polling ahead of Victoria’s November 28 state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition competitive or ahead on two-party preferred measures against Labor, with primary votes fragmented across One Nation (around 20–25 percent) and the Greens. This three-cornered contest, combined with proportional representation in the 40-seat Legislative Council, underpins trader consensus favoring the Coalition as the largest bloc while assigning lower probabilities to Labor and minor parties. One Nation’s regional strength and preference dynamics remain key variables that could influence final seat shares, though historical patterns of upper-house outcomes and the limited time until polling day limit scope for major late shifts.