**Liberal–National leads the Victorian Legislative Council market at 64.5% amid consistent statewide polling advantages heading into the 28 November election.** Recent Resolve and RedBridge surveys show the Coalition on 28–30% primary vote, ahead of Labor (24–25%) and One Nation (23–24%), with two-party preferred margins of 52–48 to 56–44 favoring the opposition. This positioning reflects voter fatigue after more than a decade of Labor government, the July 2026 leadership transition to Premier Ben Carroll, and Jess Wilson’s edge as preferred premier. One Nation’s strong primary support fragments the vote and complicates Labor’s path in proportional representation regions, while Greens (14–16%) and other minors remain competitive for seats but trail in overall projections. Upper house outcomes hinge on preference flows and regional swings, with Coalition strength in key areas supporting trader consensus on its prospects for the largest bloc or influence.