Trader consensus places 300K-325K votes as the leading outcome for Vermont’s November 3 gubernatorial contest, followed by 275K-300K, reflecting historical midterm turnout patterns between roughly 290,000 and 370,000 ballots in recent cycles. The race between incumbent Republican Phil Scott and Democrat Amanda Janoo has tightened in polling averages, with early voting returns through late October running ahead of 2022 midterm pace yet below 2024 presidential levels. This positioning stems from Vermont’s typical midterm participation rates near 56 percent of voting-eligible population, tempered by the contest’s competitiveness and ongoing early and mail ballot activity that could lift totals modestly above baseline midterm figures.