Nicolás Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces in January 2026 and subsequent imprisonment on drug and torture charges removed him from day-to-day power, yet Chavista institutions and the absence of scheduled elections have kept trader focus on continuity within his circle. Delcy Rodríguez, installed as interim president, has consolidated control through U.S.-backed talks with opposition figures, international engagement such as her FAO appearance, and selective sanctions relief that strengthens her position. Ongoing third-round negotiations emphasize electoral reforms and institutional changes without a fixed vote date, reducing near-term prospects for challengers like María Corina Machado or Dinorah Figuera. This slow transition and Rodríguez’s alignment with Washington on oil and stability issues explain the market’s heavy weighting toward Maduro’s faction through year-end.