Steven Del Duca holds a commanding position in the Vaughan mayoral race as the incumbent first elected in 2022, with nominations confirming his main challenger, Shelly-Ann Starlette Cerrelli, and lower-profile candidates including Parveen Bola ahead of the October 26 vote. Traders price his re-election at 98.7% implied probability, reflecting his delivery on infrastructure projects such as the Kirby Road Extension and Canada Drive Bridge, support for transit expansions, a zero percent property tax increase in 2026, and development charge reductions. Advance online voting runs through October 18, with limited recent polling or campaign momentum visible for opponents. A late-breaking scandal, major policy reversal on issues like traffic gridlock or data centre approvals, or unusually high challenger turnout could still shift outcomes before election day.