Pope Leo XIV’s sustained emphasis on implementing Vatican II through ongoing catechesis and synodal processes has anchored trader consensus around a 91% “No” probability for any ecumenical council in 2026. Recent family-focused gatherings marking Amoris Laetitia’s anniversary and joint documents revisiting interreligious dialogue from Vatican II have reinforced a narrative of deepening existing frameworks rather than launching new ones. With the year nearing its close and no official convocation or consistory signals emerging, momentum favors continuity over disruption. A late surprise papal announcement or major ecumenical breakthrough could still shift sentiment, though historical patterns and current priorities make such an upset unlikely before December 31.