Traders see a 97.5% chance of no direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained high-level diplomatic engagement, including recent bilateral talks on regional stability, and the absence of acute incidents in Taiwan or the South China Sea over the past year. Economic linkages and established military-to-military channels have helped contain tensions, consistent with historical patterns of managed rivalry rather than open conflict. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in continued deterrence without immediate triggers. Late developments such as a major naval miscalculation or rapid shifts in cross-strait policy could still alter probabilities within the timeframe.