US-China tensions over frontier AI development continue to drive overwhelming market consensus against any 2026 pacing agreement, with traders citing the September Trump-Xi summit outcomes. The leaders established only a limited "Super Intelligence Dialogue" on risks and benefits plus an incident notification channel, while explicitly rejecting slowdowns or joint ventures. Trump emphasized US leadership by at least a year and stated the country "is not going to be putting on brakes," aligning with ongoing chip export controls and competitive positioning against Chinese large language models. Both nations prioritize accelerating capabilities amid rivalry, with no verified progress toward mutual capability limits. A major safety incident or breakthrough at the November APEC talks could theoretically shift sentiment, though current dynamics make such reversals unlikely.