**Trader consensus heavily favors the 50-74 tornado range (78.0% implied probability) for September 2026, consistent with official preliminary counts of 45–57 confirmed tornadoes reported by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service surveys.** September climatology typically yields 52–66 U.S. tornadoes, driven by residual warm-season instability, occasional tropical cyclone remnants, or early fall cold fronts. In 2026, activity remained below average with limited organized outbreaks—primarily two modest events early and late in the month—and no major landfalling tropical systems to boost counts in the South. This placed the total near or slightly below the long-term median, aligning with the dominant market bin while leaving modest room for the adjacent 25–49 and 75–124 ranges (17.1% and 21.7%). Final NCEI verification, expected in coming weeks, will resolve the market based on confirmed Storm Data submissions.